Today we learned which two teams will be competing in Super Bowl 50. But we still have to wait until February 7th to find out which fan-made Doritos ad will air during the big game….or do we???
Yes, of course we do. Frito-Lay has been running this contest for 10 years now and the results have never once leaked out early. But if you’re paying attention it’s not too hard to guess which commercial will air. The best indicator seems to be social media buzz. Every year, hundreds of thousands of votes are cast in the final round of the Crash the Super Bowl contest. The people who make these ads always try and promote their entries but their “get out the vote” campaigns probably don’t have much of an impact. Most of of the people who vote in this contest are objective members of the public. It’s all a global popularity contest and these days it’s easy to tell which videos are popular and which ones aren’t.
On January 19th, all three 2016 Crash the Super Bowl finalists were posted on the company’s official Facebook page at the exact same time. I suspect that this was an intentional experiment; the sponsors probably wanted to see which ad would gain the most traction on social media. If this was a premeditated experiment, the results were surprisingly conclusive. Here’s how each entry fared:
Look at the numbers for Ultrasound! 1.7 Million views in less than a week is pretty impressive but the crucial stat here is the number of shares. When a facebook user shares a piece of content that means they love it…..they love it so much that they want their friends to see it. A person who shares a CTSB ad is the type of person who would actually go to Doritos.com and cast a vote for that entry. Since January 19th, these three commercials have been shared a total of 33,889 times on facebook. But 89% of those shares were for Ultrasound. It’s an absolute blow-out. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Ultrasound is a lock but at this point it’s definitely this year’s front-runner.