2011 February | Video Contest News - Featuring News about Video Contests!

Tongal’s Benjamin Moore winners

Posted by Dan L. on February 24th, 2011

The video contest-hosting site Tongal recently ran two different contests for Benjamin Moore paints and the winners were all announced this week. The first contest was called “Authentic Color” and for this one, filmmakers were supposed to create funny videos about how cutting corners can be a bad idea…or something like that. I think the intended point was that using cheap, non-Benjamin Moore paint is a bad idea. Tongal is kind of unique in that they run their contests in phases. In the first phase, people pitch ideas and the sponsors pick the concepts they like best. Then filmmakers go out and shoot those ideas. Anyways, here’s the video that took first place. The odd prize amount is because the person who came up with the original concept gets a slice of a the winnings.

First Place Winner. Prize: $7,125.

The second Benjamin Moore competition was called “Outside the Box.” For this one, filmmakers needed to drive home the point that benjamin Moore paints aren’t available at “big box” stores so if you want to buy B.M. paints you need to “think outside the box.” Here’s the video that came in first. It’s pretty cool.

First Place Winner. Prize: $5,000.

You can see all five of the “Outside the Box” winners here and the five “Authentic Color” winners here.

Incidentally, there is one more phase to these competitions that is still going on; the “Exhibition” phase. Any Tongal member can upload any of the winning videos to their youtube channels and then try to spread them around. The first three people who can get a total of 50,000 youtube views in thirty days wins an ipad. 50K sounds kind of high but I figured hey, I’ll give it a shot. So if you watched the videos above…thanks! You just helped me get 2 views closer to an ipad! Seriously though, if I can crack 2,000 views just by posting those videos here I’d be pretty impressed with myself. 50,000 views in 30 days seems pretty unobtainable.

Mofilm’s Barcelona Winners

Posted by Dan L. on February 22nd, 2011

Last week, 10 lucky filmmakers from around the world met in Spain for the Mobile World Congress after winning the top spots in Mofilm’s Barcelona competition. Each winning filmmaker received a trip for two to the MWC for placing first in different brand categories. If you’re not familiar with how Mofilm works, basically they run 10 or so video contests for big-name companies at a time in conjunction with well known, international film festivals or media events. They offer some pretty big prizes and perhaps even better, they offer a bunch of smaller prizes. Winning 1st place, $8,000 and a trip to Spain would be pretty sweet, but winning $1,000 for 5th place ain’t too shabby either.

At the Mobile World Conference, Mofilm picked one first place video as the “overall winner” of the entire competition. The winning ad was created for the Mountain Dew category and if I were a Mofilm judge, I would have picked it too. It’s pretty good and really captures the “high-energy” spirit the sponsor was looking for. I can’t embed Mofilm videos so click on the images below to watch that ad on the Mofilm site.

Overall Winner. Prize: $10,000 + a trip for 2 to Barcelona

I’ve watched all the winners and I think this one, which took first in the Adobe competition might be the most creative. It features stop motion papercraft which is something I don’t think I’ve ever seen done for a video contest before.

Adobe Winner. Prize: $5,000 + a trip for 2 to Barcelona

You can see the rest of Mofilm’s 2011 Barcelona winners and runners-up here: http://www.mofilm.com/competitions/barcelona2011

Mofilm runs competitions all year long and right now they have two that are currently active; The Goafest Competition and the New York Film Festival Competition. A special note about Goafest; Goa is in India and apparently it takes a while to apply for a visa to travel there. If you enter and win the Goafest competition, you won’t have time to apply for a visa. So only folks who already can travel to India get to go on the trip. So…you might want to set your sites on New York. But either way, you can see all of Mofilm’s current competitions here: http://www.mofilm.com/competitions/

Hearos Ear Plug contest winners

Posted by Dan L. on February 17th, 2011

Yep, even ear plug companies are running video contests these days! Hearos brand ear plugs announced the winners of their “Pretty in Pink” video contest on wednesday and all of the selected videos are pretty decent. Here’s the entry that took the top prize, Caution, it’s kind of loud.

Grand Prize Winner. Prize: $5,000

Once again, a video featuring white people rapping comes out on top. The submissions that took 2nd place ($1,500) and 3rd Place ($750) are actually pretty slick and worth checking out. But the entry I really want to spotlight is the one that came in 5th. What you are about to see is one of the most elaborate video contest entries ever made. It’s not especially hilarious or anything but trust me, this shit is bananas.

5th Place Winner. Prize: An ipad.

Is that a fucking masterpiece or what!!? I’m sure they recycled some actors but by my sloppy count, I saw about 80 different people in that video! I’m guessing these guys threw a filming party and invited everyone they knew to act as crazed extras. But I know a lot of people and it’d still be nearly impossible for me to get 30 of my friends in one place on the same afternoon. And the action everyone was doing was just ingenious. Did you notice the guy at the very end who was about to repel off the balcony?

Now… think of all the work and trouble and expense that went into that video and now imagine how the filmmakers and their friends must have felt when they found out that all they had won was a $500 ipad. That prize is an insult for a video like that! So why didn’t this video at least win one of the top cash prizes? I’m guessing they got the boobie prize because they made one giant mistake. They used (what I assume to be) copyrighted music and sound effects. The rules of the hearos contest specifically prohibited “music, image and/or artwork that you did not create.” These folks seem like a talented bunch but there is no way they produced the angelic music heard during the second half of the video. It had to have been pulled from a movie soundtrack or something. So let this be a lesson to all of you! No matter how awesome your video is, contest judges can’t pick it if it breaks the rules and uses content that other people own the rights to.

2/20 UPDATE: That elaborate party-themed entry was created by a film group called Team Awesome Seattle. They have credits for their video on youtube and they list 38 actors. So I guess they used everyone more than once but 38 actors in one video is pretty impressive. It looks like the group has shot a lot of video contest entries in the last year. If you’re interested, you can see more of their work .

The Uncanny Valley of User-Generated Content

Posted by Dan L. on February 14th, 2011

You know those somewhat annoying commercials for Trident where different weirdos talk about “getting paid in gum?” Well Trident ran an assignment through Poptent for user-made ads based on that same premise. The results were announced last week and the selected videos are far from annoying. In fact, I think they are BETTER and more creative than the actual “Get Paid in Layers” commercials that Trident airs on TV. Trident selected two videos and purchased them for $7,500 each. You can see both ads here but this is the one that I think is especially awesome.

PURCHASED BY TRIDENT. Price: $7,500

Was that great or what? “The Sword” is a perfect example of great “User Generated Content.” (UGC) It’s quirky, it’s clever, it’s funny, it’s unpredictable and perhaps best of all (for Trident) it has precious “viral appeal.” It’s so unique and entertaining that it genuinely makes me want to pass it along to other people. And hey, that’s what I’m doing right now!

Sad...but not scary

The video is also well made but it’s not too slick. What do I mean by that? Well, I’ve noticed that one key ingredient in the success of a User-Generated ad is that the viewer should be able to tell that the video WAS NOT made by professionals. I think that when a video is a little rough around the edges it feels more special. Any team of well-funded writers and filmmakers can do their take on “quirky.” (case in point, Trident’s official “Get Paid in gum” commercials) And while those big-budget ads play fine on TV, I think high production values can actually hurt videos that are meant to be viewed on the web. Internet viewers seem to want their User-Generated Content to look like User-Generated Content. In robotics and in Computer Animation the term “The Uncanny Valley” is used to describe a theory that I think fits the UGC phenomenon pretty well. Here’s how wikipedia defines The Uncanny Valley:

“The theory holds that when robots and other facsimiles of humans look and act almost like actual humans, it causes a response of revulsion among human observers.”

Zombie child! Burn it with fire!

So for example do you remember the movie, The Polar Express? It was a big flop and one reason audiences stayed away is because the CG characters were designed to look super-realistic. The results were creepy as hell! Human beings have a much more positive reaction to less realistic CG characters. (like the semi-cartoony humans in The Incredibles) When human facsimiles start to look too real, people get turned off by these “soulless” monsters and likability ratings plummet sharply.

And the same thing can sort of be said for User-Generated Content. When a user-made ad gets too close to looking like a professionally made ad I think viewers are turned off. Take for example this video that was also submitted to Poptent’s Trident assignment. This spot actually made the finals but Trident didn’t purchase it:

Out of the 142 videos submitted to Poptent’s Trident assignment, “Grease Monkey Business” was almost certainly one of the slickest, most professional-looking ads of the bunch. But there’s something that bothers me about this video. It just has no…heart. It feels like a facsimile of a “real” commercial. This is an example of a User-Generated video that crossed into the UGC Uncanny Vally. It tries very hard to look professional and somehow, that makes it seem kind of creepy. Instead of looking like a User-Generated ad it looks like a low-budget TV commercial. Except the writing, the graphics, the acting and the goofy Voice Over aren’t on the same level as the production quality. So there’s a disconnect in the viewers mind: Is this an amazing looking homemade ad or a poorly produced professional ad?

Normally I wouldn’t single out a non-winning or non-purchased video like this and explain why I think it wasn’t selected by the sponsor. But one of the producers of Grease Monkey Business totally flipped out on the Poptent forums and on his blog when he learned that “The Sword” had been selected over his submission. It was one of the worst examples of Sore-Loser-ism I’ve ever seen. The dude ripped into the other filmmakers and the Poptent staff and the decision-makers at Trident and basically accused everyone of cheating. The only person he didn’t think to blame was himself. It was this public act of unsportsmanlike conduct that inspired me to write this post, so maybe that guy will see this critique and take it as a reality check.

Anyways, it seems that many companies are starting to realize that viewers like UGC that has a homemade flavor to it. Just look at this Pepsi Max ad that wound up being one of the winners of the Crash the Super Bowl contest:

That ad is entitled “First Date” and it’s pretty rough around the edges. But people loved it! It scored the #7 spot on the USA Today Ad Meter and lots of people were talking about it the day after the game. On the flip side, the slickest and most expensive User-Generated Pepsi Max ad, “” ranked #24 on the ad meter. In fact it was the lowest-scoring Crash the Super Bowl ad of the entire game. So why did the homemade-looking ad score so well while the professional looking ad scored so poorly? Could it be that 21st century audiences have a soft spot for UGC and gave the Crash the Super Bowl ads a little extra love? If that was the case, “Torpedo Cooler” may have been so slick that the people in the Ad Meter focus groups assumed it was produced by some big ad agency so they scored it like they would any other “professional” commercial.

The take-away lesson here is that video contests are seldom won by the guys with the nicest gear. The reason big companies are looking to the “little guys” for video content is because only non-professionals are able to capture the homemade, viral video magic that they so desperately desire. They want stuff that’s weird and quirky and DIFFERENT. If a company like Pepsi or Trident wanted a standard commercial shot with a $20,000 camera they would just hire some production company to do that for them. But Internet users aren’t going to see a plain, old commercial and tweet it or post in on their facebook walls. In fact, many of us would probably refrain from sharing a funny, professional looking ad just because it would make us feel like un-paid corporate shills. But videos that have a genuine viral feel to them are free from this corporate stigma. Obviously a video like “The Sword” is an ad for Trident gum but it feels kind of subversive and unofficial…so its ok to share it! So even if you’re like the producers of “First Date” and only have $100 to spend on your project you shouldn’t let that stop you. A great script and passable production values will win out over a lame script and top-notch production values any day of the week.

EPILOGUE: Trident has already started running “The Sword” as an Internet ad. And though it was only uploaded a week ago it is already the most viewed video on Trident’s official youtube channel. Their second most viewed video is the Trident commercial about the babysitter who gets paid in gum…and that ad was uploaded in October 2009. In fact, Trident was so happy with “The Sword” that they went back and purchased a whole bunch more Poptent-made videos. You can see them here:

Yet another Crash the Super Bowl controversy

Posted by Dan L. on February 10th, 2011

Ok, this is starting to get really dumb. I could see this happening once or twice, but three times in one season? In December the blogosphere was calling for a boycott of Doritos after some Christians saw a random Crash the Super Bowl entry called “Feed Your Flock” that seemed to mock communion and assumed it was the company’s official super bowl ad. Then about 2 weeks ago the Internet freaked out again after two random, non-winning, gay-themed Crash the Super Bowl entries were mistakenly reported to be Doritos’ official Super Bowl commercials. None of those ads ever had a chance in hell of airing on TV so people were pretty much getting worked up over nothing.

But now, according to MSNBC, one of the actual commercials that did win the Crash the Super Bowl contest has managed to set the internet “on fire with a growing backlash.” The ad at the center of the controversy is entitled Love Hurts and was directed by a 28 year-old filmmaker named Brad Bosley. (it was actually one of my favorite ads to make the finals.) You probably saw this when it aired during the first quarter of the Super Bowl on sunday but here it is again:

Now here are the different reasons why people are upset about this commercial:

1. The ad promotes negative stereotypes about black women. This is the big one. Some people feel that the ad portrays black women as being violent, controlling and jealous.

2. The ad promotes negative stereotypes about black men. Some feel that the commercial makes black men look like spineless wusses who let their wives push them around and who can’t resit the temptation of a pretty white girl.

3. The ad is an example of reverse racism. This is a less popular argument but some people think the the ad is anti-white because a black character hits a white character possibly because she was white.

As I said, complaint #1 is the big one that’s going around. Here’s the MSNBC story about the controversy.

I gotta wonder, is that woman in that clip actually offended or did she just use this “controversy” as an opportunity to repeatedly plug her book? Anyways, the story is all over the place; The LA Times blog, NPR, Essence Magazine’s site….even Rush Limbaugh stopped shoving pills and pie into his mouth long enough to talk about the ad. (except Rush said the “Love Hurts” was successful because black women really do hate blonds) But this morning this story plunged even deeper into the crazy-zone when Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) took the floor of the congress to criticize this ad as racist. Let me repeat that in bold, red font:

Today, a United States congresswoman denounced a video contest entry from the floor of the House of Representatives.

And man…I thought making it to the Super Bowl was the big time! Now if you think that’s insane, wait ’till you hear the kicker. No one in the media seems to realize that Love Hurts was a consumer-made ad! I guess a lot of Super Bowl viewers didn’t catch that Pepsi Max was part of the Crash the Super Bowl contest this year. So all the people who are pissed about this are criticizing Pepsi Max for intentionally making a “racist” commercial. I mean, I even saw one blogger who said that Pepsi intentionally cast an unattractive African American because the character was supposed to be the bad guy. For God’s sake, I’ve seen a number of people who are upset that “pepsi” cast a dark-skinned African American because they assume that Pepsi must think that darker-skinned black women are meaner and more controlling than lighter-skinned black women!

Anyone who took the time to figure out who made “Love Hurts” would realize that those accusations are totally baseless. I’m not sure where Love Hurts was filmed but apparently the director is from Kansas. Would some dude in Kansas with no budget actually sit and conspire to cast certain types of people to get across some secret and offensive narrative? Or is it more likely he just cast whoever he could get? Hell, I bet the hot blond will turn out to be his cousin or something.

For the third time this winter, Fritolay had to put out a statement explaining that one of their “commercials” was actually made by a consumer as part of a video contest. However, it does sound like Pepsi was aware that the ad might stir up some trouble. Here’s part of what they said.

“We vetted this ad with our external ethnic advisory board as well as nationally recognized community activists and leaders all of whom believed the ad highlights the key product attributes in a humorous way.”

Interesting. Anyways, I hope this is the last Crash the Super Bowl “controversy’ post I do this season. What’s ironic is that I thought Love Hurts was kind of a progressive ad because the director seemed to engage in color-blind casting. This will sound kind of goofy but I thought it was cool that two characters of different races could engage in slapstick without everybody freaking out. Yeah…guess I was wrong about that one. I also thought the ad had kind of a sweet message to it; the woman isn’t messing with the guy because she’s mean. She’s messing with him because she loves him and wants him to not die. Watch the ad again. That dude was trying to eat a whole pie by himself. If anyone could benefit from some tough love, it’s him!

2/10 Update: Ok, this is funny. Check the comments to this post for an anecdote about the filming of Love Hurts. One of our readers was actually filming his CTSB entry in the same park in LA at the same time as the Love Hurts crew. And Love Hurts was definitely no amateur production. I checked and the budget of the ad was only $800 though. So why the director cast the actors he did is a mystery. Thinking about it, if he had cast a really old couple I bet the ad would have landed in the Top 3 on the ad meter. Old people hurting young people is always a crowd-pleaser.

2/11 Update: The actor from Love Hurts left a great comment to this post last night. He gave some insight into the the production, the director’s intentions and the controversy. If you’ve read this far, please click the comments button to check it out!

2011 Crash the Super Bowl Ad Meter results!

Posted by Dan L. on February 7th, 2011

Million Dollar Winner: Pug Attack

In the last six weeks I don’t think I’ve talked to a single filmmaker that entered the 2010/2011 Crash the Super Bowl contest that thought Doritos and Pepsi Max did a good job of picking their Top 10 finalists. But the Super Bowl is over, the six winning commercials have aired and the Ad Meter results are in. And it looks like the last laugh goes to Fritolay. I totally did not see this coming but this was the most successful Crash the Super Bowl contest ever! It was so successful that two filmmakers won bonus prizes and Fritolay came closer than ever before to taking all three top spots on the USA Today Ad Meter. The two big winning commercials were Pug Attack which tied for first place on the Ad Meter with the Bud Light Dog Party ad and House Sitting which (sort of) came in third. House Sitting was technically the 4th most-liked ad of the night but because of the first place tie you could argue that House Sitting scored the #3 spot on the ad meter. And I guess someone did argue that because Doritos has decided to pay the director of House sitting the #3 spot’s bonus. So Pug Attack wins an extra Million Dollars and House Sitting wins $400,000 making this year’s Crash the biggest video contest ever! Oh and let’s not forget that the director of Pug Attack also wins the chance to film a big budget commercial for Pepsi Max and Doritos later this year.

$400K winner: House Sitting

In total, Fritolay aired 3 Doritos commercials and 3 Pepsi Max commercials as promised. But I was really surprised to see that 5 of the 6 CTSB winners aired during the first quarter. The earlier an ad airs, the better chance it has of scoring well on the ad meter. I’ve heard a lot of conspiracy theories this year from non-winning contestants and one was that Fritolay didn’t really want to have to pay out all that bonus money. Well, I think we can put that theory to rest. By placing the 5 strongest ads in the first quarter, Fritolay proved that they REALLY wanted to take all three spots on the Ad Meter. And if they didn’t want to pay out too much in bonuses there’s no way they would have given the director of House Sitting the third place prize. It’s awesome that they did but to be fair, House Sitting was not actually the the 3rd highest rated commercial of the game. But like I said, good for doritos for being generous when they didn’t have to. To recap, here’s a list of all of the ads that aired last night. They are in the order they ran in and their “rank” is where they landed on the ad meter. To see the winning and non-winning ads, head here.

2011 CRASH THE SUPER BOWL WINNERS and AD METER SCORES

1. Pug Attack. SCORE: 8.35. RANK: Tie for #1

2. The Best Part. SCORE: 7.27. RANK: #14

3. Love Hurts. SCORE: 7.56. RANK: #5

4. House Sitting. SCORE: 7.68. RANK: #4

5. Torpedo Cooler. SCORE: 6.68. RANK: #24

6. First Date. SCORE: 7.52. RANK: #7

You can see all the Ad Meter results here. Last week I posted my predictions for which 6 ads would air during the big game and I managed to get 5 out of 6 right. ( The only one I missed was “First Date.”) I gotta admit though, I was way off on most of my other predictions. I never in a million years expected 4 CTSB finalist ads to air in the To 10. And I really thought a few ads were totally going to tank on the ad meter. I mean, First Date took 7th place! Who could have seen that coming!? I’m totally amazed at how well that spot did. I always thought it was amusing and well written but I assumed its low production values would hurt it’s score.

So why did this year’s crop of CTSB winners do SO WELL in the Ad Meter polling? There are a couple reasons I think:

1. Timing. Focus groups are excited during the 1st quarter and jaded and tired by the 3rd. So Fritolay was able to “buy” some success by cramming the first quarter full of ads. That forced other companies to air their big ads later on and that hurt their scores. For example, if an ad like the Rosanne/Snickers commercial had aired in the first quarter instead of late in the 2nd, I bet it would have made the Top 5.

2. Crappy Bud Light Ads. Prior to the Crash the Super Bowl contest, Bud Light scored the #1 spot on the ad meter for like 10 years in a row. They tied for first this year but most of their 2011 commercials were pretty lame. (that one with the cowboys singing “Tiny Dancer” was the suckiest of the bunch) So one reason Pepsi Max and Doritos ads scored well is because Bud Light really tanked it this year.

3. Few “funny” commercials. When you think of Super Bowl commercials, you think comedy. But there were very few simple, funny 30 second ads this year. There were tons of cool car commercials and movie trailers and two-minute long documentaries about the re-birth of Detroit but only funny commercials do well on the ad meter.

4. Most companies don’t seem to care about the ad meter anymore. Doritos, Pepsi, Budweiser, careerbuilder and Snickers are some of the only companies that seem to actually try to make “the #1 Super Bowl commercial.” I think other ad firms may have ceded ad meter victory to fritolay and focused on making ads with “viral” appeal. In a way, viral views the week after the Super Bowl is the new “contest” for advertisers.

5. The best CTSB ads wound up airing. Luckily for Fritolay, none of the ads that wouldn’t have done well on the ad meter made it to air. Plus, the spots that did run held up really well on TV. I really didn’t like some of the finalist choices but I gotta admit, when you see them play of TV it’s a totally different experience. For example, I thought “The Best Part” might be too gross for the Super Bowl. But when the ad actually aired yesterday it came off as being pretty awesome. So ahem…maybe fritolay did a better job than a lot of us thought.

6. The Snowglobe Effect. There’s not really an appropriate name for this theory so let’s call it “The SnowGlobe Effect” in honor of The Herbert Brother’s SnowGlobe-themed 2008 CTSB entry that wound up being the first consumer-created commercial to take the #1 spot on the ad meter. I think one of the primary reasons this year’s crop of Crash the Super Bowl spots scored so well is BECAUSE they were part of the Crash the Super Bowl Contest. The USA Today Ad Meter has become a huge part of the Crash. Any person who actually gets into one of the USA Today’s focus groups has got to know what is at stake for the “average Joes” who made Doritos and Pepsi Max ads. So, I think the focus groups were kinder to the CTSB entries because they wanted to see the “little guys” do well and maybe win a million bucks.

So…Fritolay came super close to nailing the Top 3 spots in the Ad Meter and if the contest happens again next year, they might actually be able to pull it off. I’ve been thinking that this might be the last year the company ran the Crash. But after last night’s amazing results I can’t see how they wouldn’t bring it back. In fact, I think they’ll probably go balls to the wall next year and REALLY try to “take the top 3.” You’ve only got 9 months until the traditional early November deadline so you better start planning for 2012.

Live Crash the Super Bowl results

Posted by Dan L. on February 6th, 2011

The second quarter of the Super Bowl is just starting but surprisingly, 5 Crash the Super Bowl finalist ads have already aired! So I guess there’s just one spot left to go. I really expected Fritolay to spread them out a little more. But these early airings must mean that Pepsi and Doritos genuinely and really want these commercials to land in the top 3 on the USA Today Ad Meter. If you missed a commercial break making a chicken wing run, here are the results so far. These are the ads that aired tonight in the order they ran. Titles in Red are Doritos ads and titles in Blue are for Pepsi Max. Remember, you can see all of this year’s CTSB finalists .

2011 CRASH THE SUPER BOWL WINNERS and AD METER SCORES

1. Pug Attack. SCORE: 8.35. RANK: Tie for #1

2. The Best Part. SCORE: 7.27. RANK: #14

3. Love Hurts. SCORE: 7.56. RANK: #5

4. House Sitting. SCORE: 7.68. RANK: #4

5. Torpedo Cooler. SCORE: 6.68. RANK: #24

6. First Date. SCORE: 7.52. RANK: #7

UPDATE: The ad meter scores are in and the results are unbelievable! I did not see this coming but the Crash the Super Bowl winners came closer than ever before to winning the 5 million dollar bonus. Pug Attack tied with the Bud Light Dog Party ad for first place. House Sitting was the #4 ad of the night and Love Hurts was ranked #5. Even though he won on a tie, the director of Pug Attack will receive a One Million Dollar bonus. Check back with us tomorrow and we’ll go over the results in more detail.

Which Crash the Super Bowl ads will air on sunday?

Posted by Dan L. on February 4th, 2011

The last day to cast your vote in the Crash the Super Bowl contest was January 30^th and by now all 10 finalists should be enjoying their week-long trip to sunny Dallas, TX. (current conditions: 20°F and “snowy”) It’s gotta be nerve-racking to wait a full week before learning whether or not your ad is going to air during the big game. But hopefully all the selected filmmakers will be able to chill out and enjoy themselves…in Dallas. I just checked and in the previous three years that the CTSB happened (2007, 2009 and 2010) the Super Bowl always took place in Miami or Tampa. But don’t feel too bad for the 2011 winners. At least they have good BBQ in Texas. If the contest comes back next year and you make it to the finals you’ll get to spend a week in fabulous Indianapolis, Indiana!

But 2012 is a long way off. So let’s focus on the immediate future and talk about how this year’s contest might finish up. I didn’t follow this year’s competition as closely as I did last year but I do think I have a decent idea as to which ads are going to make it to air. I’m basing my predictions on several factors:

1. News and Social Media Coverage, 2. Finalist’s “vote for us” campaigns, 3. Youtube views, 4. Entry Quality and finally 5. My Ass (Frankly, that’s where one or two of these picks got pulled from)

So here are the ads that I think are going to make it to air on Sunday. I’ll list them in the order I think they will run. Keep in mind that the earlier an ad airs, the better it will probably do on the ad meter. And Fritolay gets to pick when an ad plays regardless of how many votes it got. So that means the first two ads to play are the ones that Fritolay thinks have the best shot of landing in the Top 3 on the ad meter. Click the thumbnails to watch the ads.

1. Pug Attack: If this isn’t the first Doritos ad to air on Sunday I’ll eat a giant, foam Cheese Hat. Pug Attack has absolutely crushed all of its competition on youtube. Right now it’s at 125,000 views. The next most viewed 2011 finalist is “The Best Part” with 61,000 views. Pug Attack has also gotten a lot of press and social media coverage so I think it’s a safe bet that it got enough votes to make Doritos’ Top 2. And if it didn’t, it’s proven popular enough that the Doritos judges would chose to run it. And one more thing; as I’ve mentioned I was disappointed that Doritos picked this ad since it seems like a blatant rip-off of last year’s CTSB winner, Underdog. The similarities between the two spots are undeniable so Doritos must have picked this ad because it reminded them of Underdog. So their goal may be to create a symmetry between last year’s winner and this one (which they hope will be the big winner of the night.) If that’s the case they’ll be running Pug Attack first since last year they ran Underdog first.

2. Torpedo Cooler: For some reason, the filmmaker who made Torpedo Cooler has done almost no campaigning for his ad…at least as far as I can see. I haven’t seen a “vote for torpedo cooler” website or facebook page and I’ve only seen a few, random “vote for torpedo cooler” blog posts and tweets. This is weird when you consider the fact that Torpedo Cooler was directed by a filmmaker (and friend of VCN) named Brendan Hayword. And last year, Brendon made the CTSB finals with a commercial called “The Smackout.” Brendan campaigned like crazy in 2010 but in the end, he was the only person who’s ad DIDN’T air during the Super Bowl. From what I’ve read and been told, the Fritolay team and the other finalists felt pretty bad for the guy since he was basically the only non-winner in the group. So why would this filmmaker work so hard and spend so much money (According to this press release, Torpedo Cooler’s budget was $4,500) to try and get back to the Crash the Super Bowl finals and then exert almost no effort to get enough votes to make it to air? I think it’s because he was already informed weeks ago that Torpedo Cooler will be the ad that the Pepsi Max judges choose to air. And you know what? I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that. If Pepsi knew right from the start which ad they wanted to air I actually think it was pretty cool of them to let the filmmaker know so he wouldn’t waste a month busting his ass, hustling for votes he didn’t need to get.

3. The Best Part: As I’ve said, this spot really grew on me. Yeah it’s kinda gross but if it airs during the big game a lot of people will probably be quoting this ad on Monday. (mmm, cheese!) The team that made this spot did a lot of campaigning and they have a robust following on . So I think they’re going to get enough votes to make the Top 2. And this is going to sound like kind of a weird theory but if you go to the official Crash The Super Bowl youtube channel, The Best Part is their “featured video” and it’s set to Auto-Play whenever you visit the page. That’s a little trick to boost a video’s view count if you have a popular channel. Fritolay is proud of the viral success of the their CTSB finalists. So I think they might be trying to jack up this ads’ view count because they don’t think many people will rush to their computers after the Super Bowl to re-watch a commercial where one guy licks another guy’s cheesy fingers.

4. Zero Calories, Psshh: This spot makes my list because it’s gotten a considerable amount of press coverage. But it also has a big advantage because the video was essentially the combined effort of a bunch of employees at a florida Ad agency. That means that every employee at the company and all of their friends and family members were probably voting for “Zero Calories, Psshh,” religiously all month long. Plus hey, they’re an ad agency. So they better know how to promote their own work! As for its placement during the Super Bowl, I think Fritolay will try and bury it during the middle of the game since it’s not as strong as most of the other videos in the Top 10. Last year, the last Crash the Super Bowl ad that aired during the 4th quarter wound up being the most watched commercial OF ALL TIME. So I think Doritos and Pepsi will want to try and finish strong and air some of their best ads, last.

5. House Sitting: I don’t think “House Sitting” will get enough votes to make it to air but I do think this will be the spot that the Doritos judges pick. I’m personally not crazy about this ad but a lot of people seem to really like it and it would probably do ok on the ad meter. It also goes very quickly which means that a lot of people would want to watch it again later on line. Predicting which ad Doritos will want to run is a tough call. If not “House Sitting” the slot will probably go to Birthday Wish. But House Sitting has several things going for it that “Birthday Wish” doesn’t. For one, Doritos appear all throughout House Sitting but they only get about 3 seconds of good screen time in Birthday Wish. House Sitting is also one of the only finalist ads to feature a non-white actor and it’s the first CTSB finalist ad ever to be created by and African American female director. Diversity is important to fritolay (as it should be) and so if the judges have to pick between House Sitting and Birthday Wish I think they’ll give it to House Sitting.

6. Love Hurts: This is one of my personal favorites and I think it would go over really well during the Super Bowl. The big, shocking slapstick surprise at the end should really help it score well on the ad meter. The video has gotten a decent amount of social media coverage and it’s actually the most viewed Pepsi Max finalist ad on Fritolay’s youtube channel (41,000 views.) Because three of the five Pepsi Max finalist ads are….well, not so great, that should really help Love Hurts get enough votes to make it to air. If a random person who had no connection to any of the finalists watched all five Pepsi Max ads I don’t seem many people voting for anything other than Torpedo Cooler or Love Hurts. And if Torpedo Cooler DOES get enough votes to air, Pepsi’s only other logical pick would be Love Hurts.

7. ??????: For the last two years, Doritos has surprised contestants by running an extra Crash the Super Bowl finalist spot during the game. A few weeks ago it was announced that Fritolay/Pepsi had bought a 7th Super Bowl slot. The company can use it for any of their products and I’ve read that they might run an ad for Brisk Ice Tea. But, they may also decide to run one extra CTSB commercial. I don’t think that’s gonna happen though. 6 CTSB ads is enough for one night.

Just for the record, the ads that I don’t think are going to air are Elevator Girl, Adam & Eve, Birthday Wish and First Date. You can watch all 10 of this year’s finalists .

And now, a few quick predictions about the USA Today Ad Meter:

1. Fritolay’s 5 million bucks is safe. There is just no way in the world that 3 of this year’s finalists will be ranked the #1, #2 and #3 commercials of the game.

2. Actually, all of Fritolay’s bonus money is probably safe. I don’t think any of the Pepsi Max or Doritos commercials will land in the Top 3. (other companies have some really big ads planned for this year)

3. The winner of the “Professional Commercial” gig will be the director of Pug Attack since that ad will be the highest scoring CTSB commercial of the night.

4. The only spots that have a shot at making the Top 10 are Pug Attack, Love Hurts and House Sitting.

5. AT LEAST one Crash the Super Bowl ad will score BELOW #30 on the Ad Meter. And if some of the weaker ads air I think they have a chance of landing in the bottom 10.

Alright well, the time for predictions is finally over. Check back here after the Super Bowl for all the final ad meter results!