The last day to cast your vote in the Crash the Super Bowl contest was January 30^th and by now all 10 finalists should be enjoying their week-long trip to sunny Dallas, TX. (current conditions: 20°F and “snowy”)  It’s gotta be nerve-racking to wait a full week before learning whether or not your ad is going to air during the big game.  But hopefully all the selected filmmakers will be able to chill out and enjoy themselves…in Dallas.  I just checked and in the previous three years that the CTSB happened (2007, 2009 and 2010) the Super Bowl always took place in Miami or Tampa.  But don’t feel too bad for the 2011 winners.  At least they have good BBQ in Texas.  If the contest comes back next year and you make it to the finals you’ll get to spend a week in fabulous Indianapolis, Indiana!

But 2012 is a long way off.  So let’s focus on the immediate future and talk about how this year’s contest might finish up.  I didn’t follow this year’s competition as closely as I did last year but I do think I have a decent idea as to which ads are going to make it to air.  I’m basing my predictions on several factors:

1. News and Social Media Coverage, 2. Finalist’s “vote for us” campaigns, 3. Youtube views, 4. Entry Quality and finally 5. My Ass (Frankly, that’s where one or two of these picks got pulled from)

So here are the ads that I think are going to make it to air on Sunday.  I’ll list them in the order I think they will run.  Keep in mind that the earlier an ad airs, the better it will probably do on the ad meter.  And Fritolay gets to pick when an ad plays regardless of how many votes it got.  So that means the first two ads to play are the ones that Fritolay thinks have the best shot of landing in the Top 3 on the ad meter.  Click the thumbnails to watch the ads.

1.  Pug Attack: If this isn’t the first Doritos ad to air on Sunday I’ll eat a giant, foam Cheese Hat.  Pug Attack has absolutely crushed all of its competition on youtube.  Right now it’s at 125,000 views.  The next most viewed 2011 finalist is “The Best Part” with 61,000 views.  Pug Attack has also gotten a lot of press and social media coverage so I think it’s a safe bet that it got enough votes to make Doritos’ Top 2.  And if it didn’t, it’s proven popular enough that the Doritos judges would chose to run it.  And one more thing; as I’ve mentioned I was disappointed that Doritos picked this ad since it seems like a blatant rip-off of last year’s CTSB winner, Underdog.  The similarities between the two spots are undeniable so Doritos must have picked this ad because it reminded them of Underdog.  So their goal may be to create a symmetry between last year’s winner and this one (which they hope will be the big winner of the night.)  If that’s the case they’ll be running Pug Attack first since last year they ran Underdog first.

2. Torpedo Cooler: For some reason, the filmmaker who made Torpedo Cooler has done almost no campaigning for his ad…at least as far as I can see.  I haven’t seen a “vote for torpedo cooler” website or facebook page and I’ve only seen a few, random “vote for torpedo cooler” blog posts and tweets.  This is weird when you consider the fact that Torpedo Cooler was directed by a filmmaker (and friend of VCN) named Brendan Hayword.  And last year, Brendon made the CTSB finals with a commercial called “The Smackout.”  Brendan campaigned like crazy in 2010 but in the end, he was the only person who’s ad DIDN’T air during the Super Bowl.  From what I’ve read and been told, the Fritolay team and the other finalists felt pretty bad for the guy since he was basically the only non-winner in the group.  So why would this filmmaker work so hard and spend so much money (According to this press release, Torpedo Cooler’s budget was $4,500) to try and get back to the Crash the Super Bowl finals and then exert almost no effort to get enough votes to make it to air?  I think it’s because he was already informed weeks ago that Torpedo Cooler will be the ad that the Pepsi Max judges choose to air.   And you know what?  I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that.  If Pepsi knew right from the start which ad they wanted to air I actually think it was pretty cool of them to let the filmmaker know so he wouldn’t waste a month busting his ass, hustling for votes he didn’t need to get.

3.  The Best Part: As I’ve said, this spot really grew on me.  Yeah it’s kinda gross but if it airs during the big game a lot of people will probably be quoting this ad on Monday.  (mmm, cheese!)  The team that made this spot did a lot of campaigning and they have a robust following on .  So I think they’re going to get enough votes to make the Top 2.  And this is going to sound like kind of a weird theory but if you go to the official Crash The Super Bowl youtube channel, The Best Part is their “featured video” and it’s set to Auto-Play whenever you visit the page.  That’s a little trick to boost a video’s view count if you have a popular channel.  Fritolay is proud of the viral success of the their CTSB finalists.  So I think they might be trying to jack up this ads’ view count because they don’t think many people will rush to their computers after the Super Bowl to re-watch a commercial where one guy licks another guy’s cheesy fingers.

4.  Zero Calories, Psshh: This spot makes my list because it’s gotten a considerable amount of press coverage.  But it also has a big advantage because the video was essentially the combined effort of a bunch of employees at a florida Ad agency.  That means that every employee at the company and all of their friends and family members were probably voting for “Zero Calories, Psshh,” religiously all month long.  Plus hey, they’re an ad agency.  So they better know how to promote their own work!  As for its placement during the Super Bowl, I think Fritolay will try and bury it during the middle of the game since it’s not as strong as most of the other videos in the Top 10.  Last year, the last Crash the Super Bowl ad that aired during the 4th quarter wound up being the most watched commercial OF ALL TIME.  So I think Doritos and Pepsi will want to try and finish strong and air some of their best ads, last.

5. House Sitting: I don’t think “House Sitting” will get enough votes to make it to air but I do think this will be the spot that the Doritos judges pick.  I’m personally not crazy about this ad but a lot of people seem to really like it and it would probably do ok on the ad meter.  It also goes very quickly which means that a lot of people would want to watch it again later on line.  Predicting which ad Doritos will want to run is a tough call.  If not “House Sitting” the slot will probably go to Birthday Wish.  But House Sitting has several things going for it that “Birthday Wish” doesn’t.  For one, Doritos appear all throughout House Sitting but they only get about 3 seconds of good screen time in Birthday Wish.  House Sitting is also one of the only finalist ads to feature a non-white actor and it’s the first CTSB finalist ad ever to be created by and African American female director.  Diversity is important to fritolay (as it should be) and so if the judges have to pick between House Sitting and Birthday Wish I think they’ll give it to House Sitting.

6. Love Hurts: This is one of my personal favorites and I think it would go over really well during the Super Bowl.  The big, shocking slapstick surprise at the end should really help it score well on the ad meter.  The video has gotten a decent amount of social media coverage and it’s actually the most viewed Pepsi Max finalist ad on Fritolay’s youtube channel (41,000 views.)  Because three of the five Pepsi Max finalist ads are….well, not so great, that should really help Love Hurts get enough votes to make it to air.  If a random person who had no connection to any of the finalists watched all five Pepsi Max ads I don’t seem many people voting for anything other than Torpedo Cooler or Love Hurts.  And if Torpedo Cooler DOES get enough votes to air, Pepsi’s only other logical pick would be Love Hurts.

7.  ??????: For the last two years, Doritos has surprised contestants by running an extra Crash the Super Bowl finalist spot during the game.  A few weeks ago it was announced that Fritolay/Pepsi had bought a 7th Super Bowl slot.  The company can use it for any of their products and I’ve read that they might run an ad for Brisk Ice Tea.  But, they may also decide to run one extra CTSB commercial.  I don’t think that’s gonna happen though.  6 CTSB ads is enough for one night.

Just for the record, the ads that I don’t think are going to air are Elevator Girl, Adam & Eve, Birthday Wish and First Date.  You can watch all 10 of this year’s finalists .

And now, a few quick predictions about the USA Today Ad Meter:

1.  Fritolay’s 5 million bucks is safe.  There is just no way in the world that 3 of this year’s finalists will be ranked the #1, #2 and #3 commercials of the game.

2.  Actually, all of Fritolay’s bonus money is probably safe.  I don’t think any of the Pepsi Max or Doritos commercials will land in the Top 3. (other companies have some really big ads planned for this year)

3.  The winner of the “Professional Commercial” gig will be the director of Pug Attack since that ad will be the highest scoring CTSB commercial of the night.

4.  The only spots that have a shot at making the Top 10 are Pug Attack, Love Hurts and House Sitting.

5.  AT LEAST one Crash the Super Bowl ad will score BELOW #30 on the Ad Meter. And if some of the weaker ads air I think they have a chance of landing in the bottom 10.

Alright well, the time for predictions is finally over.  Check back here after the Super Bowl for all the final ad meter results!