A few posts back I said I’d be reviewing all 6 of Doritos’s Crash the Superbowl finalists.  Well, after discovering a free graph making program on-line where you can make the points look like little Doritos, I’ve decided to do something way geekier.  Instead of doing straight reviews, I’m going to throw some hardcore graph action in your face and try to predict how each commercial might score on the real USA Today Ad Meter.

These graphs won’t show my personal opinions.  Rather, they will show what I expect the average opinions of everyone in the USA Today focus group might be.  If you missed our explanation the other day about how the USA Today Superbowl ad meter works, check it out here. Remember, USA Today’s focus groups include people from all walks of life.  So no matter how much 90% of the group likes a certain ad, there will always be at least a few people who dislike it.

Predicting how a commercial will score on the Ad Meter isn’t actually that tough.  The moments that people will score highly are easy to identify.  So even if the scores on these graphs don’t match what the real scores would look like, the peaks and valleys will appear in the same places.  So here we go.  I’ll put the ads in order of best scoring to worst:

1.  UNDERDOG.  PREDICTED SCORE:  8.19

SUMMARY:  The guys who made this spot knew what they were doing.  It’s essentially designed to score well in the Ad Meter.  EVERYONE loves dogs and EVERYONE hates jerks that are mean to dogs.  And history is on the side of this video.  Remember that Budweiser commercial where the dog trains the Clydesdale, Rocky-style?  That scored 1^st on the ad meter in 2008.  Like I said, everyone loves dogs.  Plus, the cuteness and comedy in this ad start early which means which means viewers will “like it” for longer. Based on last year’s ad meter results, a score of 8.19 would get Underdog into the Top 3.

2. SNACK ATTACK SAMURAI.  PREDICTED SCORE: 7.46

SUMMARY:  This spot isn’t the most original submission I’ve seen but I bet it will make a lot of people smile.  It’s got kind a kooky vibe that I think viewers will find appealing, even if they don’t know why.  It LOOKS funny and FEELS funny, so even if it’s not actually super hilarious, I think it will score decently.

3. KIDS THESE DAYS.  PREDICTED SCORE: 7.15

SUMMARY:  Since a commercial’s final ad meter score is an average of how every second of the ad scored, Kids These Days probably won’t fair too well since it takes a while for the comedy to start.  But the main gag is a strong, likable one.  After Mr. Popped Collar gets shocked, I’m guessing viewers will keep their dials turned up as a retro-active sign of appreciation.

4.  THE SMACKOUT.  PREDICTED SCORE: 7.02

SUMMARY:  This spot was perfectly cast.  Unfortunately, it wasn’t perfectly shot.  The color is just plain messed up.  I like this story and think it was very well acted but it looks bad at times and I think that will be a turn off to viewers.  The use of cleavage was also a little gratuitous and I suspect a lot of women will punish this ad by keeping the score a little lower than is reasonable.  The slapstick is funny but not really Superbowl funny and I don’t think many viewers will be extremely impressed.

5. CASKET. PREDICTED SCORE: 6.85

SUMMARY: This is the best looking of all the CTSB finalists but all the other commercials airing during the superbowl will look as good as “Casket” or better. So production values won’t get them much ad meter juice. (Though I think the pretty church setting might result in an initial spike) This video has two things going against it; One, the protagonist’s plan is cruel and feels like a weak excuse for the guy to be in the casket and two, I think the “dead” man was miscast. Much of this commercial’s comedy comes from looks on the “dead” man’s face. I think the actor that was cast is simply annoying looking and I bet a lot of viewers would agree with me.

6. HOUSE RULES.  PREDICTED SCORE: 6.29

SUMMARY:  My gut reaction to this spot is that I like it.  But unfortunately, because of the way it’s set up, it’s doomed to perform poorly on the ad meter.  The graph tells the whole story.  A whopping 22 seconds go by before the real comedy starts.  That’s an eternity for a Superbowl commercial.  I think that not only will viewers not start scoring the commercial positively until the action starts, I think some may even start scoring it negatively if they start getting bored.

When you look at each ad charted out like this, you kind of have to wonder why Doritos picked some of these ads for the finals. I mean, I was able to whip up these graphs in like an hour. Millions and millions of dollars are at stake in the Crash the Superbowl contest so it seems hard to believe that Doritos wouldn’t have somebody analyze each finalist’s chances in the Ad meter.  Last year, a commercial needed to score at least a 7.49 just to make the top 10. So if Doritos did graph these out, then they already know that several of these videos just have zero chance of scoring “in the money.”  Hmmm, could it be that’s what they’re counting on?