Super Bowl XLIX is still three days away but a whole buttload of Super Bowl commercials appeared online this week. Did you see that Godaddy ad about the lady who sells the puppy? Crap like that is one reason why I transferred my web hosting away from Godaddy. On the flip side, that Snickers ad with Danny Trejo is going to go down as one of the best Super Bowl commercials of all time. But that’s not surprising because Danny Trejo can do no wrong.
So what about Doritos? Frito-Lay never reveals which Crash the Super Bowl ads are going to air so for now we’ll just have to make some educated guesses. One of the winning commercials was picked via an online vote. So let’s take a look at the view counts for all 10 finalists and see which ones were popular:
Lemonade Stand: 488,387 Views
Baby’s First Word: 475,221 Views
Middle Seat: 470,870 Views
What Could Go Wrong?: 429,607 Views
Trouble in the Back Seat: 423,582 Views
Doritos Angler: 413,067 Views
When Pigs Fly: 402,214 Views
Selfish Sneezers: 388,147 Views
Doritos Manchild: 379,307 Views
MissSpelling Bee: 373,552 Views
The numbers are pretty close here and there’s no clear landslide winner. But I think Lemonade Stand will wind up winning the public vote. I remember one year about 750,000 votes were cast in the CTSB contest so “get out the vote” campaigns don’t really have much affect. Even if a contestant went on the local news and managed to get 1,000 extra people to vote for him, most of the votes in this contest will come from people who watch a few entries and then pick their favorite. And since Lemonade Stand is objectively the best ad in the bunch, I think it’s going to win the million dollar grand prize.
Second place is a little harder to predict. The second ad will be picked by the judges at Frito-Lay and I wouldn’t be surprised if they selected one of the weirder finalists. Middle Seat is a great ad too but it contains a quick joke about Irritable Bowl Syndrome. It’s a cheap shot that would upset a lot of people so I think that one joke will keep Middle Seat off the air. And I can say with almost 100% confidence that there’s no way in hell that Trouble in the Back Seat will air. That’s because AdWeek noticed something that I pointed out weeks ago; Trouble in the Back Seat was a little too similar to this Award-Winning European commercial:
Is Trouble in the Back Seat a rip off? I can’t say for sure. But FritoLay isn’t going to spend 4.5 Million dollars to air a commercial that MIGHT be based on a stolen idea.
The remaining ads are either too gross for the Super Bowl (Selfish Sneezers, MissSpelling Bee) or just not very original. So I’m going to go out a limb here and predict that the judges will give second place to What Could Go Wrong?
I like this one because it’s cute and has a nice, low budget feel. Plus it has a weird and shocking ending. The folks at Frito-Lay want two things here; they want people to re-watch the CTSB ads online and they want viewers to tweet and post about the commercials right after they air. And What Could Go Wrong? Will accomplish both of those goals. Plus the director of the ad has a great backstory….
Good Luck to all the finalists. I’ll post the results of the Crash during the game so check back here if you miss any of the winners.