That's like 2 days from now!

On Thursday morning Fritolay is finally going to announce the 5 consumer-made Doritos commercials that will have a shot at airing during Super Bowl 46. According to USA Today, this time around, Doritos received a record 6,100 Crash the Superbowl entries!  You don’t have to be Rain Man to figure out that that 6,100 entries and only 5 finalist slots means that each submission has pretty much a 1 in 1,220 shot of making the next round.  So it’s pretty much impossible to guess which ads will wind up winning.  But I love a good challenge so just for the heck of it, I thought I’d take a shot and list five entries that I predict will make the Crash the Super Bowl finals this year.  Of course, if I get even just one of these guesses right I’ll feel pretty darn proud of myself.  Like I said…the odds are kind of ridiculous here.  But I actually suspect that 2 or maybe even 3 of these commercials will make the final five.

It should be noted that this short list doesn’t represent my personal favorite Crash the Superbowl entries.  These are the submissions that I think the judges at FritoLay are most likely to pick based on their past choices.  I’ll present my 5 choices without commentary.  To watch an ad, just click on the image:

Bird of Prey

Kitty Heist

Imaginary Fiend

My Friend Archie

Sling Baby

Actually, I have one more prediction I’d like to make; since there were 6,100 entries and since I apparently only watched about 60% of the submissions, I’m guessing that one or two finalists will be entries I’ve never even seen before.  If you have any predictions of your own, feel free to post your opinions in the comment section.   And be sure to stop here on Thursday morning to find out just how wrong or just how right my picks were.

The last day to cast your vote in the Crash the Super Bowl contest was January 30^th and by now all 10 finalists should be enjoying their week-long trip to sunny Dallas, TX. (current conditions: 20°F and “snowy”)  It’s gotta be nerve-racking to wait a full week before learning whether or not your ad is going to air during the big game.  But hopefully all the selected filmmakers will be able to chill out and enjoy themselves…in Dallas.  I just checked and in the previous three years that the CTSB happened (2007, 2009 and 2010) the Super Bowl always took place in Miami or Tampa.  But don’t feel too bad for the 2011 winners.  At least they have good BBQ in Texas.  If the contest comes back next year and you make it to the finals you’ll get to spend a week in fabulous Indianapolis, Indiana!

But 2012 is a long way off.  So let’s focus on the immediate future and talk about how this year’s contest might finish up.  I didn’t follow this year’s competition as closely as I did last year but I do think I have a decent idea as to which ads are going to make it to air.  I’m basing my predictions on several factors:

1. News and Social Media Coverage, 2. Finalist’s “vote for us” campaigns, 3. Youtube views, 4. Entry Quality and finally 5. My Ass (Frankly, that’s where one or two of these picks got pulled from)

So here are the ads that I think are going to make it to air on Sunday.  I’ll list them in the order I think they will run.  Keep in mind that the earlier an ad airs, the better it will probably do on the ad meter.  And Fritolay gets to pick when an ad plays regardless of how many votes it got.  So that means the first two ads to play are the ones that Fritolay thinks have the best shot of landing in the Top 3 on the ad meter.  Click the thumbnails to watch the ads.

1.  Pug Attack: If this isn’t the first Doritos ad to air on Sunday I’ll eat a giant, foam Cheese Hat.  Pug Attack has absolutely crushed all of its competition on youtube.  Right now it’s at 125,000 views.  The next most viewed 2011 finalist is “The Best Part” with 61,000 views.  Pug Attack has also gotten a lot of press and social media coverage so I think it’s a safe bet that it got enough votes to make Doritos’ Top 2.  And if it didn’t, it’s proven popular enough that the Doritos judges would chose to run it.  And one more thing; as I’ve mentioned I was disappointed that Doritos picked this ad since it seems like a blatant rip-off of last year’s CTSB winner, Underdog.  The similarities between the two spots are undeniable so Doritos must have picked this ad because it reminded them of Underdog.  So their goal may be to create a symmetry between last year’s winner and this one (which they hope will be the big winner of the night.)  If that’s the case they’ll be running Pug Attack first since last year they ran Underdog first.

2. Torpedo Cooler: For some reason, the filmmaker who made Torpedo Cooler has done almost no campaigning for his ad…at least as far as I can see.  I haven’t seen a “vote for torpedo cooler” website or facebook page and I’ve only seen a few, random “vote for torpedo cooler” blog posts and tweets.  This is weird when you consider the fact that Torpedo Cooler was directed by a filmmaker (and friend of VCN) named Brendan Hayword.  And last year, Brendon made the CTSB finals with a commercial called “The Smackout.”  Brendan campaigned like crazy in 2010 but in the end, he was the only person who’s ad DIDN’T air during the Super Bowl.  From what I’ve read and been told, the Fritolay team and the other finalists felt pretty bad for the guy since he was basically the only non-winner in the group.  So why would this filmmaker work so hard and spend so much money (According to this press release, Torpedo Cooler’s budget was $4,500) to try and get back to the Crash the Super Bowl finals and then exert almost no effort to get enough votes to make it to air?  I think it’s because he was already informed weeks ago that Torpedo Cooler will be the ad that the Pepsi Max judges choose to air.   And you know what?  I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that.  If Pepsi knew right from the start which ad they wanted to air I actually think it was pretty cool of them to let the filmmaker know so he wouldn’t waste a month busting his ass, hustling for votes he didn’t need to get.

3.  The Best Part: As I’ve said, this spot really grew on me.  Yeah it’s kinda gross but if it airs during the big game a lot of people will probably be quoting this ad on Monday.  (mmm, cheese!)  The team that made this spot did a lot of campaigning and they have a robust following on facebook.  So I think they’re going to get enough votes to make the Top 2.  And this is going to sound like kind of a weird theory but if you go to the official Crash The Super Bowl youtube channel, The Best Part is their “featured video” and it’s set to Auto-Play whenever you visit the page.  That’s a little trick to boost a video’s view count if you have a popular channel.  Fritolay is proud of the viral success of the their CTSB finalists.  So I think they might be trying to jack up this ads’ view count because they don’t think many people will rush to their computers after the Super Bowl to re-watch a commercial where one guy licks another guy’s cheesy fingers.

4.  Zero Calories, Psshh: This spot makes my list because it’s gotten a considerable amount of press coverage.  But it also has a big advantage because the video was essentially the combined effort of a bunch of employees at a florida Ad agency.  That means that every employee at the company and all of their friends and family members were probably voting for “Zero Calories, Psshh,” religiously all month long.  Plus hey, they’re an ad agency.  So they better know how to promote their own work!  As for its placement during the Super Bowl, I think Fritolay will try and bury it during the middle of the game since it’s not as strong as most of the other videos in the Top 10.  Last year, the last Crash the Super Bowl ad that aired during the 4th quarter wound up being the most watched commercial OF ALL TIME.  So I think Doritos and Pepsi will want to try and finish strong and air some of their best ads, last.

5. House Sitting: I don’t think “House Sitting” will get enough votes to make it to air but I do think this will be the spot that the Doritos judges pick.  I’m personally not crazy about this ad but a lot of people seem to really like it and it would probably do ok on the ad meter.  It also goes very quickly which means that a lot of people would want to watch it again later on line.  Predicting which ad Doritos will want to run is a tough call.  If not “House Sitting” the slot will probably go to Birthday Wish.  But House Sitting has several things going for it that “Birthday Wish” doesn’t.  For one, Doritos appear all throughout House Sitting but they only get about 3 seconds of good screen time in Birthday Wish.  House Sitting is also one of the only finalist ads to feature a non-white actor and it’s the first CTSB finalist ad ever to be created by and African American female director.  Diversity is important to fritolay (as it should be) and so if the judges have to pick between House Sitting and Birthday Wish I think they’ll give it to House Sitting.

6. Love Hurts: This is one of my personal favorites and I think it would go over really well during the Super Bowl.  The big, shocking slapstick surprise at the end should really help it score well on the ad meter.  The video has gotten a decent amount of social media coverage and it’s actually the most viewed Pepsi Max finalist ad on Fritolay’s youtube channel (41,000 views.)  Because three of the five Pepsi Max finalist ads are….well, not so great, that should really help Love Hurts get enough votes to make it to air.  If a random person who had no connection to any of the finalists watched all five Pepsi Max ads I don’t seem many people voting for anything other than Torpedo Cooler or Love Hurts.  And if Torpedo Cooler DOES get enough votes to air, Pepsi’s only other logical pick would be Love Hurts.

7.  ??????: For the last two years, Doritos has surprised contestants by running an extra Crash the Super Bowl finalist spot during the game.  A few weeks ago it was announced that Fritolay/Pepsi had bought a 7th Super Bowl slot.  The company can use it for any of their products and I’ve read that they might run an ad for Brisk Ice Tea.  But, they may also decide to run one extra CTSB commercial.  I don’t think that’s gonna happen though.  6 CTSB ads is enough for one night.

Just for the record, the ads that I don’t think are going to air are Elevator Girl, Adam & Eve, Birthday Wish and First Date.  You can watch all 10 of this year’s finalists here.

And now, a few quick predictions about the USA Today Ad Meter:

1.  Fritolay’s 5 million bucks is safe.  There is just no way in the world that 3 of this year’s finalists will be ranked the #1, #2 and #3 commercials of the game.

2.  Actually, all of Fritolay’s bonus money is probably safe.  I don’t think any of the Pepsi Max or Doritos commercials will land in the Top 3. (other companies have some really big ads planned for this year)

3.  The winner of the “Professional Commercial” gig will be the director of Pug Attack since that ad will be the highest scoring CTSB commercial of the night.

4.  The only spots that have a shot at making the Top 10 are Pug Attack, Love Hurts and House Sitting.

5.  AT LEAST one Crash the Super Bowl ad will score BELOW #30 on the Ad Meter. And if some of the weaker ads air I think they have a chance of landing in the bottom 10.

Alright well, the time for predictions is finally over.  Check back here after the Super Bowl for all the final ad meter results!

I see nut-shots in your future

Hey folks, Happy New year!  For you, the reader it’s now 2011 but I’m sending these words to you from the distant past!  Well, Wednesday, December 29^th, 2010 to be precise.  I figure I’ll be in no condition to blog on New Year’s Day so I’m writing this article now and setting it to “auto-post” on January 1st.  So if you can read this it means the power grids didn’t fail and my predictions about Y2K+10 were totally off base.

And speaking of (probably) inaccurate predictions…as I’ve explained in previous posts, I gave myself a Crash The Super Bowl related challenge this year.  I set out to watch all 1460+ Pepsi Max submissions and then list the videos that I thought had the best chance of making it to the Top 5.  I called it my Top 30 contenders list.  After I posted the list most readers had one of two reactions; 1.  Why didn’t my entry make your list!? and 2. That’s great but where’s your Top 5?

My response to Question #1 was usually something along the lines of “well, there were lots of great entries and just because I don’t think your submission fits precisely with what I suspect the Pepsi Max folks will be looking for it doesn’t mean your entry isn’t any good.”  And my response to Question #2 was pretty much “Meh, I don’t feel like doing one.”

But since the official reveal of the 2011 Crash the Super bowl finalists is now just 2 days away I couldn’t help but compiling a last minute list of predictions.  I only watched a handful of Doritos entries this year so I’m going to guess all 5 Doritos finalists will be new to me.  But like I said I did watch every, single Pepsi Max submission.  So here are the 5 ads that I think have a shot at going all the way.  I’ll present them in the most exciting order known to man; ALPHABETICAL!   Click the images to see the videos at Crashthesuperbowl.com.

"Holy Sugar-free!"

LAUNCH PAD. This is just an amazing looking entry.  I’d say it was the best produced Pepsi Max ad I watched.  However…there is a chance this ad may be TOO professional looking for this competition.  If this spot aired on TV no one would ever suspect it was an entry in a “User-Generated” commercial contest.  And I think this year Pepsi and Doritos will be looking for ads with a low-budget, homemade feel.  “Launch Pad” was actually created by a team of filmmakers named Dandy Dwarves.  Their entry “Too Delicious” made the Doritos Crash the Super Bowl finals in 2008/2009.  Last year they submitted an AMAZING entry called Doritos Please that I thought for sure was  bound for the 2010 finals.  But it didn’t make it.  And I think one reason “Doritos Please” didn’t make it is because the ad was TOO professional looking.   So, in this contest, too slick might actually be a negative.

"Maximum Taste!"

LOVE HURTS. This is one of the only submissions that actually made me laugh out loud.  It’s kind of ingenious in the way it builds to its big payoff.  For the first 20 seconds you think you’re just watching a typical “wife wants husband to eat right” commercial.  But then at the end a shocking moment of slapstick takes you by surprise.  Oh, plus the main guy gets a pie in the face!  On top of that, the production values are top notch and the casting is great.  And this ad does have one other big thing going for it; the main characters are not just a couple of 25 year old white guys.  Diversity is important to big companies like Fritolay (as well it should be) and if they wind up picking 10 finalists that feature nothing but white people running around kicking each other in the nuts it’s not going to look good.  But even if you take diversity out of the equation, this ad is definitely Top 5 material.

"Aaaaaahhhhhhh!"

MAXIMUM BORGNINE. This is the prediction I have the most confidence in.  Every batch of Crash the Super Bowl finalists needs one “home run” in the group.  And Maximum Borgnine is one of the only potential home runs I saw among the 1400+ Pepsi Max entries I watched.  If there’s a Pepsi Max ad that has a shot at making the Top 3 on the ad meter, this is it.  Having said all that, I’ll be kind of disappointed if Maximum Borgnine makes the finals.  Yes, it’s a home run but not because it’s well written or incredibly hilarious.  The only reason that this ad is special in any way is because it has a celebrity in it.  Replace Earnest Borgnine with a random adorable old guy actor and it wouldn’t be very memorable.  But he is in there so the ad will be memorable.  (to be fair, if I saw this spot on TV and it wasn’t part of the CTSB contest, It’d make me smile because Ernest Borgnine is awesome.)  Long story short, I’m thinking Pepsi is going to hope that Earnest Borgnine will be the Betty White of the 2011 Super Bowl.  But if they do pick the ad they’re going to frustrate a lot of contestants who would didn’t realize that getting a celebrity was a shortcut to the finals.

TP'in...Throwin Pepsi...MAX

THROWING PEPSI. If you’re going to give “Average joes” from  the middle of nowhere a chance to make it big it’s a good idea to pick at least one ad that feels like it was made by actual average joes.  One of my past criticisms of the Crash the Super Bowl contest is that they seem to prefer really slickly made videos.  Production values ARE important but if Fritolay just picks a bunch of ads that were made by pros from LA, it kind of takes the fun out of the endeavor.   So I think Pepsi and Doritos will each be picking at least one non-professional looking finalist entry this year.  And for Pepsi Max I think the choice will be “Throwing Pepsi.” This ad is one of my personal favorites and I’ll be rooting for it to make the finals.  I think it perfectly captures the sought-after “user-generated” quirkiness and look.  It was shot in a random suburb, somewhere in America by two “average joes.”  It features tons of small but funny gags (like young guys in intentionally bad old guy costumes) and it has several big gags that will make viewers laugh out loud.  But I think the best thing about Throwing Pepsi is the goofy dude with the shaved head.  If this ad airs during the super bowl, THAT GUY could be the Betty White of 2011.

"I love Tool Fights!"

TOOL FIGHT. This is an amusing spot and it certainly looks like a Super Bowl ad.  Plus Pepsi Max is supposed to be the “manly” alternative to Diet Pepsi and this spot is all about over-the-top manliness.  But when I first made my list of Top 30 Pepsi Max contenders I included “Tool Fight” but said that certain factors would probably keep it out of the finals.  This spot was created by a team of filmmakers named “The Herbert Brothers.”  If you entered the CTSB contest I’m sure you know who they are.  They’ve made the Crash the Super Bow finals twice and in 2009 their hilarious ad Free Doritos scored #1 on the USA Today Ad meter and won the brothers a one million dollar bonus….as well as a ton of press coverage.  Since their win, the brothers have been enlisted by Fritolay several times to promote the Crash the Super Bowl and they were even hired to create the official “How to Crash” instructional videos that are up at Crashthesuperbowl.com.  So my thinking is that even though “Tool Fight” is good, Fritloay just would not be able to pick it because 6,000 contestants would all flip out over the choice.  But since I posted my list I started thinking about this from Pepsi’s point of view.  To them, these negatives might be positives.  If the former CTSB champs come back to compete again, that’s an interesting news story.  If “Tool Fight” does make the Top 5, expect to see articles and press releases that say things like “The Kings of the Crash are back but this time, they’ve got their sights set on a new product; Pepsi max!“  I think the added press coverage that would come with “Tool Fight“ will be just too good for Pepsi to turn down.

And finally, I do have one more prediction; I predict that at least 3 of my 5 predictions will be wrong!  Seriously though, I wouldn’t be surprised if I wind up going 0 for 5.  And ok…I ‘ll throw in one Doritos prediction; a few readers sent me a link to a video entitled Aardvark and I think it’ll probably make it.

So, that’s it for the predictions.  The real finalists will be announced on January 2nd at 12:01AM.  We’ll have reviews of all 10 finalist ads on Monday ’cause Beardy is hardcore like that.  Be sure to stop by the Site on January 2nd and let us know what you think of Fritolay’s top 10.

Oh!  One more thing; I’ve heard from a ton of readers in the last few weeks that submitted some really awesome entries for this contest.  If you’re a fan of this site and you actually make the Top 10 let me know and VCN will help promote your spot during the month-long voting process!

Beardy is a dreamer of big dreams. And Beardy’s latest big dream was to watch all 4047 entries in this year’s crash the superbowl contest and list his predictions for which commercials would make it to the finals. But alas, this was a pipe dream. For if one were to actually sit down and watch every, single entry that was submitted to the Doritos contest this year they’d be stuck in front of a computer for almost three full days. Beardy still wants to compile a list of predictions, but he could use some help.

So, have you seen a spot that you thought was especially awesome? Did you see one that you know is destined to make it to the finals? Or did you create an amazing commercial that you think should be recognized? Or did you make a spot was just OK but you feel like doing some shameless self promotion? If you answered in the affirmative to any of these questions, let us know. Send us a link to your favorite CTSB entries at videocontestnews@gmail.com or just leave it in a comment. In the next few days, I’ll edit this post and insert links to some of the more interesting suggestions I’ve received.