Hey folks, Happy New year!  For you, the reader it’s now 2011 but I’m sending these words to you from the distant past!  Well, Wednesday, December 29^th, 2010 to be precise.  I figure I’ll be in no condition to blog on New Year’s Day so I’m writing this article now and setting it to “auto-post” on January 1st.  So if you can read this it means the power grids didn’t fail and my predictions about Y2K+10 were totally off base.

And speaking of (probably) inaccurate predictions…as I’ve explained in previous posts, I gave myself a Crash The Super Bowl related challenge this year.  I set out to watch all 1460+ Pepsi Max submissions and then list the videos that I thought had the best chance of making it to the Top 5.  I called it my Top 30 contenders list.  After I posted the list most readers had one of two reactions; 1.  Why didn’t my entry make your list!? and 2. That’s great but where’s your Top 5?

My response to Question #1 was usually something along the lines of “well, there were lots of great entries and just because I don’t think your submission fits precisely with what I suspect the Pepsi Max folks will be looking for it doesn’t mean your entry isn’t any good.”  And my response to Question #2 was pretty much “Meh, I don’t feel like doing one.”

But since the official reveal of the 2011 Crash the Super bowl finalists is now just 2 days away I couldn’t help but compiling a last minute list of predictions.  I only watched a handful of Doritos entries this year so I’m going to guess all 5 Doritos finalists will be new to me.  But like I said I did watch every, single Pepsi Max submission.  So here are the 5 ads that I think have a shot at going all the way.  I’ll present them in the most exciting order known to man; ALPHABETICAL!   Click the images to see the videos at Crashthesuperbowl.com.

LAUNCH PAD. This is just an amazing looking entry.  I’d say it was the best produced Pepsi Max ad I watched.  However…there is a chance this ad may be TOO professional looking for this competition.  If this spot aired on TV no one would ever suspect it was an entry in a “User-Generated” commercial contest.  And I think this year Pepsi and Doritos will be looking for ads with a low-budget, homemade feel.  “Launch Pad” was actually created by a team of filmmakers named Dandy Dwarves.  Their entry “Too Delicious” made the Doritos Crash the Super Bowl finals in 2008/2009.  Last year they submitted an AMAZING entry called Doritos Please that I thought for sure was  bound for the 2010 finals.  But it didn’t make it.  And I think one reason “Doritos Please” didn’t make it is because the ad was TOO professional looking.   So, in this contest, too slick might actually be a negative.

LOVE HURTS. This is one of the only submissions that actually made me laugh out loud.  It’s kind of ingenious in the way it builds to its big payoff.  For the first 20 seconds you think you’re just watching a typical “wife wants husband to eat right” commercial.  But then at the end a shocking moment of slapstick takes you by surprise.  Oh, plus the main guy gets a pie in the face!  On top of that, the production values are top notch and the casting is great.  And this ad does have one other big thing going for it; the main characters are not just a couple of 25 year old white guys.  Diversity is important to big companies like Fritolay (as well it should be) and if they wind up picking 10 finalists that feature nothing but white people running around kicking each other in the nuts it’s not going to look good.  But even if you take diversity out of the equation, this ad is definitely Top 5 material.

MAXIMUM BORGNINE. This is the prediction I have the most confidence in.  Every batch of Crash the Super Bowl finalists needs one “home run” in the group.  And Maximum Borgnine is one of the only potential home runs I saw among the 1400+ Pepsi Max entries I watched.  If there’s a Pepsi Max ad that has a shot at making the Top 3 on the ad meter, this is it.  Having said all that, I’ll be kind of disappointed if Maximum Borgnine makes the finals.  Yes, it’s a home run but not because it’s well written or incredibly hilarious.  The only reason that this ad is special in any way is because it has a celebrity in it.  Replace Earnest Borgnine with a random adorable old guy actor and it wouldn’t be very memorable.  But he is in there so the ad will be memorable.  (to be fair, if I saw this spot on TV and it wasn’t part of the CTSB contest, It’d make me smile because Ernest Borgnine is awesome.)  Long story short, I’m thinking Pepsi is going to hope that Earnest Borgnine will be the Betty White of the 2011 Super Bowl.  But if they do pick the ad they’re going to frustrate a lot of contestants who would didn’t realize that getting a celebrity was a shortcut to the finals.

THROWING PEPSI. If you’re going to give “Average joes” from  the middle of nowhere a chance to make it big it’s a good idea to pick at least one ad that feels like it was made by actual average joes.  One of my past criticisms of the Crash the Super Bowl contest is that they seem to prefer really slickly made videos.  Production values ARE important but if Fritolay just picks a bunch of ads that were made by pros from LA, it kind of takes the fun out of the endeavor.   So I think Pepsi and Doritos will each be picking at least one non-professional looking finalist entry this year.  And for Pepsi Max I think the choice will be “Throwing Pepsi.” This ad is one of my personal favorites and I’ll be rooting for it to make the finals.  I think it perfectly captures the sought-after “user-generated” quirkiness and look.  It was shot in a random suburb, somewhere in America by two “average joes.”  It features tons of small but funny gags (like young guys in intentionally bad old guy costumes) and it has several big gags that will make viewers laugh out loud.  But I think the best thing about Throwing Pepsi is the goofy dude with the shaved head.  If this ad airs during the super bowl, THAT GUY could be the Betty White of 2011.

TOOL FIGHT. This is an amusing spot and it certainly looks like a Super Bowl ad.  Plus Pepsi Max is supposed to be the “manly” alternative to Diet Pepsi and this spot is all about over-the-top manliness.  But when I first made my list of Top 30 Pepsi Max contenders I included “Tool Fight” but said that certain factors would probably keep it out of the finals.  This spot was created by a team of filmmakers named “The Herbert Brothers.”  If you entered the CTSB contest I’m sure you know who they are.  They’ve made the Crash the Super Bow finals twice and in 2009 their hilarious ad scored #1 on the USA Today Ad meter and won the brothers a one million dollar bonus….as well as a ton of press coverage.  Since their win, the brothers have been enlisted by Fritolay several times to promote the Crash the Super Bowl and they were even hired to create the official “How to Crash” instructional videos that are up at Crashthesuperbowl.com.  So my thinking is that even though “Tool Fight” is good, Fritloay just would not be able to pick it because 6,000 contestants would all flip out over the choice.  But since I posted my list I started thinking about this from Pepsi’s point of view.  To them, these negatives might be positives.  If the former CTSB champs come back to compete again, that’s an interesting news story.  If “Tool Fight” does make the Top 5, expect to see articles and press releases that say things like “The Kings of the Crash are back but this time, they’ve got their sights set on a new product; Pepsi max!“  I think the added press coverage that would come with “Tool Fight“ will be just too good for Pepsi to turn down.

And finally, I do have one more prediction; I predict that at least 3 of my 5 predictions will be wrong!  Seriously though, I wouldn’t be surprised if I wind up going 0 for 5.  And ok…I ‘ll throw in one Doritos prediction; a few readers sent me a link to a video entitled Aardvark and I think it’ll probably make it.

So, that’s it for the predictions.  The real finalists will be announced on January 2nd at 12:01AM.  We’ll have reviews of all 10 finalist ads on Monday ’cause Beardy is hardcore like that.  Be sure to stop by the Site on January 2nd and let us know what you think of Fritolay’s top 10.

Oh!  One more thing; I’ve heard from a ton of readers in the last few weeks that submitted some really awesome entries for this contest.  If you’re a fan of this site and you actually make the Top 10 let me know and VCN will help promote your spot during the month-long voting process!